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Circus123
02-20 04:05 PM
Here is Mr. Gotcher's perspective on EB3 movement ...
In terms of EB3 movement for India do you think that the slow movement as predicted will atleast move the cut off dates to Dec 2001 (India) by end of FY 08 ?
I doubt very much that we will see any EB3 cutoff date movement until October.
James Ronald Gotcher
In terms of EB3 movement for India do you think that the slow movement as predicted will atleast move the cut off dates to Dec 2001 (India) by end of FY 08 ?
I doubt very much that we will see any EB3 cutoff date movement until October.
James Ronald Gotcher
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vbkris77
04-10 12:28 PM
What you said is absolutely true. EB1 Last year and the year before saw lot more approvals than usual. My reasoning is that even though EB1 was current for all along, they never really approved I140s to give them GC. So In the overall clearing of I140s, CIS cleared lot more EB1 cases and became approved during last 2 years. If you look at the I140 completion in the dash board, it will be very much clear that the completions came down to 4 digits for each month from 5 digits. Receipts continued to be less than 5K per month.
This year, we may see a big dip in EB1 cases and larger EB2 spillover. EB4 spillover is ruled out after this bulletin.
Here are the details for last year and years before:
(Thanks to user "sangiano" on : link: FY2009 Visa Data, Spillover to EB2 - Will it be Similar FY2010 (http://www..com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/498198953/fy2009-visa-data-spillover-to-eb2-will-it-be-similar-fy2010))
Employment Visas 2009
Total Employment Visas for FY2009 = 141,020
Theoretical values without spillover
EB1 28.6% = 40,332
EB2 28.6% = 40,332
EB3 28.6% = 40,332
EB4 7.1% = 10,012
EB5 7.1% = 10,012
Actual values with spillover
EB1 40,978 = 29.1% received c.650 spillup visa used
EB2 46,034 = 32.6% received c.5,700 spillover visas used
EB3 39,791 = 28.2% received c.550 less visas than quota
EB4 9,999 = 7.1% Zero spillup visas to give
EB5 4,218 = 3.0% c. 5,800 spillup visas to give
What is noteworthy is the fact that spillup/spillover visas were only available from EB5.
In addition, EB1 actually consumed spillup visas and did not contribute any spillover visas as a result.
This implies that the total spillover visas available to the 7% limited countries was only c.7,500. Since 5,800 came from EB5, less 650 used by EB1, this gives a subtotal of 5,150. In turn, this implies that there were only 7,500 - 5,150 = 2,350 as spillover from EB2-ROW. In the worst case the difference is entirely from EB5.
I think it gives food for thought and shows the difficulty of trying to second guess visa consumption in Categories that are always current. I accept it might be easier to get a handle on non-NIW EB2 because of the PERM data available for ROW.
I'm not sure why FY2010 would be much different, at least for EB1 spillover.
Additional notes from subsequent posts:
There was significant spillover in FY2007 because (based on 154,497 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 26,806 out of a possible 44,186 available visas.
EB4 only used 4,794 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
EB5 only used 793 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 33,731 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2007 that mostly went vertically to EB3.
There was significant spillover in FY2008 because (based on 162,949 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 36,590 out of a possible 46,603 available visas.
EB4 only used 7,648 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
EB5 only used 1,443 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 24,060 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2008 that all went to EB2.
The amount *was* smaller in FY2009 because (based on 141,020 total EB visas)
EB1 used 40,978 which was more than the available visas of 40,332 (i.e. it used some of the spillup from EB4/EB5).
EB4 used 9,999 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e it pretty much maxed out)
EB5 only used 4,218 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e. much higher than previous years)
That gives a potential spillover to EB2 of 5,161 visas, which is substantially lower than previous years.
This is all his analysis based entirely on historic data (no predictions here; just what has already happened). All credit of analysis goes to him. I never crunched a single number; I am just an "integrater" of the info. Please also note that now we have found out that the word "spillover" should actually be "fall across and down"
Hope this was the info you were asking for.
This year, we may see a big dip in EB1 cases and larger EB2 spillover. EB4 spillover is ruled out after this bulletin.
Here are the details for last year and years before:
(Thanks to user "sangiano" on : link: FY2009 Visa Data, Spillover to EB2 - Will it be Similar FY2010 (http://www..com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/498198953/fy2009-visa-data-spillover-to-eb2-will-it-be-similar-fy2010))
Employment Visas 2009
Total Employment Visas for FY2009 = 141,020
Theoretical values without spillover
EB1 28.6% = 40,332
EB2 28.6% = 40,332
EB3 28.6% = 40,332
EB4 7.1% = 10,012
EB5 7.1% = 10,012
Actual values with spillover
EB1 40,978 = 29.1% received c.650 spillup visa used
EB2 46,034 = 32.6% received c.5,700 spillover visas used
EB3 39,791 = 28.2% received c.550 less visas than quota
EB4 9,999 = 7.1% Zero spillup visas to give
EB5 4,218 = 3.0% c. 5,800 spillup visas to give
What is noteworthy is the fact that spillup/spillover visas were only available from EB5.
In addition, EB1 actually consumed spillup visas and did not contribute any spillover visas as a result.
This implies that the total spillover visas available to the 7% limited countries was only c.7,500. Since 5,800 came from EB5, less 650 used by EB1, this gives a subtotal of 5,150. In turn, this implies that there were only 7,500 - 5,150 = 2,350 as spillover from EB2-ROW. In the worst case the difference is entirely from EB5.
I think it gives food for thought and shows the difficulty of trying to second guess visa consumption in Categories that are always current. I accept it might be easier to get a handle on non-NIW EB2 because of the PERM data available for ROW.
I'm not sure why FY2010 would be much different, at least for EB1 spillover.
Additional notes from subsequent posts:
There was significant spillover in FY2007 because (based on 154,497 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 26,806 out of a possible 44,186 available visas.
EB4 only used 4,794 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
EB5 only used 793 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 33,731 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2007 that mostly went vertically to EB3.
There was significant spillover in FY2008 because (based on 162,949 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 36,590 out of a possible 46,603 available visas.
EB4 only used 7,648 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
EB5 only used 1,443 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 24,060 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2008 that all went to EB2.
The amount *was* smaller in FY2009 because (based on 141,020 total EB visas)
EB1 used 40,978 which was more than the available visas of 40,332 (i.e. it used some of the spillup from EB4/EB5).
EB4 used 9,999 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e it pretty much maxed out)
EB5 only used 4,218 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e. much higher than previous years)
That gives a potential spillover to EB2 of 5,161 visas, which is substantially lower than previous years.
This is all his analysis based entirely on historic data (no predictions here; just what has already happened). All credit of analysis goes to him. I never crunched a single number; I am just an "integrater" of the info. Please also note that now we have found out that the word "spillover" should actually be "fall across and down"
Hope this was the info you were asking for.
ramus
07-02 06:50 AM
It is just 7 a.m. too early to say anything..
So far so good, hope we are on the same note rest of the week.
So far so good, hope we are on the same note rest of the week.
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desi3933
05-26 05:18 PM
The applicant was found to be inadmissible pursuant to section 212(a(6)(C)(ii) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (the Act), for falsely claiming to be a U.S. citizen.
http://www.uscis.gov/err/H4%20-%20Application%20for%20Reentry%20after%20Removal%2 0or%20Aggravated%20Felony%20Conviction/Decisions_Issued_in_2008/Jun162008_07H4212.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/err/H4%20-%20Application%20for%20Reentry%20after%20Removal%2 0or%20Aggravated%20Felony%20Conviction/Decisions_Issued_in_2008/Jun162008_07H4212.pdf
more...
chmur
03-17 05:35 PM
The way I read it is ...People with PD's earlier than 2004-05 have been their long enough to understnd the pain and hence are active in all these forums , participate in such polls etc.
Others are happy with their EAD's and know anyway it's going to be a while and are in hibernation ...cannot blame them ...this GC following can get stressfull ....ignorance is bliss....suddenly the laws might change or something like July 07 might happen again ....
I think only those who got stuck in the Labor backlog (This could be huge #) and few other unlucky ones like me are the ones who are still waiting in India-EB3 Catergory pre 2004.
I know a bunch of India-EB3 pre 2004 got approved in the gold rush of July 2007
Others are happy with their EAD's and know anyway it's going to be a while and are in hibernation ...cannot blame them ...this GC following can get stressfull ....ignorance is bliss....suddenly the laws might change or something like July 07 might happen again ....
I think only those who got stuck in the Labor backlog (This could be huge #) and few other unlucky ones like me are the ones who are still waiting in India-EB3 Catergory pre 2004.
I know a bunch of India-EB3 pre 2004 got approved in the gold rush of July 2007
samy
11-12 02:40 AM
IV core should have two focus: long term plan and a short term plan.
Long term plan is anything that involves visa increase.
Short term plan is anything that does not involve visa increase, but that provides some kind of releif to us. A no-nonsense, non-controversial and simple measure that can be added to an appropriation bill is a best example.
I hope the core is reading this post...
Long term plan is anything that involves visa increase.
Short term plan is anything that does not involve visa increase, but that provides some kind of releif to us. A no-nonsense, non-controversial and simple measure that can be added to an appropriation bill is a best example.
I hope the core is reading this post...
more...
hrushi_j
09-10 03:27 PM
and will return at 5:00 PM
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Winner
06-10 05:03 PM
Did my part.
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tejonidhi
09-10 01:51 PM
:)After they have their stomach full, and after finishing about animals, other humans then comes lousy aliens like me and you.
Please prey God that they don't get used to ALIENS's Flesh.:)
Please prey God that they don't get used to ALIENS's Flesh.:)
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24fps
02-13 02:47 PM
LOL
his choice of words was dramatic/wrong but it does'nt take away the fact the veracity of the article he's posted.
i've been hearing about this for a while as well, and it needs to be debated/looked into
his choice of words was dramatic/wrong but it does'nt take away the fact the veracity of the article he's posted.
i've been hearing about this for a while as well, and it needs to be debated/looked into
more...
ronhira
03-12 11:14 AM
I have contributed to IV in faxes, phone calls and sending numerous letters. You can always check my history before analyzing from a blind eye. I have been here for a while, I have even spoken to a few IV core members.
Need my trust and money, please earn it.
so u'r sachbole - employee of that tracker site..... wonder y u hate iv......
u did not contribute to iv by sending faxes & making those phone calls.... u did that for u'rself...... u'r not doing me or anyone else a favor by sending faxes or making phone calls.....
no one needs u'r trust becoz u'r a paid employee of a business that is against each one of us getting green card...... if everyone will get gc then who will track their application.... meaning no ad revenue for u..... isn't that right? sachbole?
Need my trust and money, please earn it.
so u'r sachbole - employee of that tracker site..... wonder y u hate iv......
u did not contribute to iv by sending faxes & making those phone calls.... u did that for u'rself...... u'r not doing me or anyone else a favor by sending faxes or making phone calls.....
no one needs u'r trust becoz u'r a paid employee of a business that is against each one of us getting green card...... if everyone will get gc then who will track their application.... meaning no ad revenue for u..... isn't that right? sachbole?
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nomi
12-13 10:25 AM
Count me and 2 more members with me....lets have a plan..and execute it.
Would some one will take control to make letter ready which we need to send to USCIS and I will work to get info about USCIS office and fax number ??
Please let me know who will make this fax letter ready ??
thx.
Would some one will take control to make letter ready which we need to send to USCIS and I will work to get info about USCIS office and fax number ??
Please let me know who will make this fax letter ready ??
thx.
more...
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H1Girl
03-09 12:38 PM
...
Wonder why India EB3 is lagging so far behind and virtually crawling at a snail's pace.
I wouldn't wonder...It's all supply and demand. We have to understand that...
Wonder why India EB3 is lagging so far behind and virtually crawling at a snail's pace.
I wouldn't wonder...It's all supply and demand. We have to understand that...
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msyedy
06-12 09:04 AM
our chances of getting some relief are better if infact CIR dies. if cir dies there might be a chance for SKIL bill.Even if SKIL is not taken up no bill is better than this CIR authored by ron hira aka kennedy, durbin and kyl.
Pitha (Shree)
I see what you are thinking, but EB3india is correct. In CIR or never.
I agree with him that we need to get a new stratergy to handle this.
I do not know why IV core has not spoken after this bill died. When CIR came to the Senate floor with all these restrictions, Logiclife mentioned something
like we should become illegals.
He must have been kidding but one could see the fact that the illegals were the ones who were getting the benefits.
I want to hear a similar statement from them, let us see........
Pitha (Shree)
I see what you are thinking, but EB3india is correct. In CIR or never.
I agree with him that we need to get a new stratergy to handle this.
I do not know why IV core has not spoken after this bill died. When CIR came to the Senate floor with all these restrictions, Logiclife mentioned something
like we should become illegals.
He must have been kidding but one could see the fact that the illegals were the ones who were getting the benefits.
I want to hear a similar statement from them, let us see........
more...
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pkak
07-13 01:16 AM
i believe the argument that this sudden jump was made to help eb2 china is pure hogwash.
Scanning the FLC database, 5978 Indian Labor applicants with Level III/IV wage rates benefit with this jump, vs 761 Labor applicants from China.
Assuming one labor approval generates 2.5 AOS applications, and dividing the total AOS applications by 2 (attrition, I-140 denials, EB3 cases etc), approx 15K Indians benefit, vs <2K people from China.
Add to this 04/01/2004-03/27/2005 Indian applicants whose labor cases were adjudicated by Backlog Centers (approx 6000 Level III/IV applications , assuming same ball-park as 5853 similar India applicants certified in Fiscal year 2006), approx 7.5K more Indian�s will benefit.
Scanning the FLC database, 5978 Indian Labor applicants with Level III/IV wage rates benefit with this jump, vs 761 Labor applicants from China.
Assuming one labor approval generates 2.5 AOS applications, and dividing the total AOS applications by 2 (attrition, I-140 denials, EB3 cases etc), approx 15K Indians benefit, vs <2K people from China.
Add to this 04/01/2004-03/27/2005 Indian applicants whose labor cases were adjudicated by Backlog Centers (approx 6000 Level III/IV applications , assuming same ball-park as 5853 similar India applicants certified in Fiscal year 2006), approx 7.5K more Indian�s will benefit.
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crazyghoda
01-30 01:50 PM
Yes I filed on July 5th 2007.
When do the medical tests run out. I did mine sometime in June 2007. I recall someone mentioning that you need to keep doing those every "x" months or something. Is that true?
When did you file ur 485, i mean exact date? If you filed very early during July'07 fiasco, probably they started pre-adjudication process based on the receipt date.
When do the medical tests run out. I did mine sometime in June 2007. I recall someone mentioning that you need to keep doing those every "x" months or something. Is that true?
When did you file ur 485, i mean exact date? If you filed very early during July'07 fiasco, probably they started pre-adjudication process based on the receipt date.
more...
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mayhemt
02-10 10:28 AM
Can anyone suggest hotels and/or if already booked can you post those hotel name & locations?
Also, just a suggestion, this thread is getting complicated as far as matching donors with travelers is concerned... May be create a Google spreadsheet with all the donors (miles, accommodations) and match them with travelers from just one central location?
Also, just a suggestion, this thread is getting complicated as far as matching donors with travelers is concerned... May be create a Google spreadsheet with all the donors (miles, accommodations) and match them with travelers from just one central location?
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vin
06-13 11:08 AM
I have seen this same footage months ago and to it don't look real, its cooked. Some facts there are just un-digestible like the gora guy will take job of a waiter immediately after working as senior exec. cmon market is not that bad unless he don't know anything else and don't have ability to get other similar job, then he should be fired anyways. and then that carlos guy, his dress up don't seems convincing that other execs will give me good response after presentation. its all cooked... showing 600k+ numbers are all bogus.
LOL. Come on man. No need to seriously justify so much! Looking at it, straightway anyone can make out that it was made to be a joke!
LOL. Come on man. No need to seriously justify so much! Looking at it, straightway anyone can make out that it was made to be a joke!
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amitpan007
06-06 11:54 AM
After long wait of 4.7 years ( i know it may not sound too long as some of the others), I finally got the card production ordered email yesterday. I was mostly a silent reader on IV but have contributed to IV few times since I started visiting since last year. I wish good luck for everybody waiting out there.
raydon
12-13 11:33 AM
Don't know whether to rely on the dates in the visa bulletin. My colleague who is EB3 China with a PD of 2004 got his I-485 approved recently. The dates on the visa bulletin show EB3 China to be June 2002. Wonder of wonders, that is the USCIS.
Btw, I shook his hand, hoping that some of his incredible luck would rub off on me. Just kidding - it was to congratulate him on his newly attained freedom.:)
Btw, I shook his hand, hoping that some of his incredible luck would rub off on me. Just kidding - it was to congratulate him on his newly attained freedom.:)
snathan
04-13 11:58 AM
I urge everyone to read the donor forum...we need more people to work on couple of issues and fixes. Please become a donor and take part in this...if you are serious to fix these issues.
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